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圖解》台灣同婚合法7年，支持率卻從69.9%跌到63.6%！民調揭3大變化，台灣人真的變保守了？ - 風傳媒

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圖解》台灣同婚合法7年，支持率卻從69.9%跌到63.6%！民調揭3大變化，台灣人真的變保守了？ - 風傳媒

Status: 🟡 developing story — event record, vault-only until verified. Facts below are sourced to linked reporting; treat unconfirmed details as reported, not verified. Expand only with cited facts.

Tier ruling: Tier D — cite reporting, no page minted. The story is about public opinion in Taiwan, not about the diaspora community. No subject named in the article has a page in the archive and no US-soil tie exists, so per CONTROL §1b the item is cited here and no person page is created. (Card premise check: “archive records no relationship or presence for them” — confirmed true by grep for 魏甫丞 / 翁鈺清 / 簡至潔 / 彭志鏐 across content/; the only hit for 簡至潔 is a TJJ 有話好說 20181114 episode title, a presence as TV debater, not a community tie.)

What happened

風傳媒 圖解 article (魏甫丞, 風生活, 2026-10-27 08:30) reads the Executive Yuan’s 《115年性別平等觀念電話民意調查》 (fieldwork 2026-04-09~13, released 2026-05-29; 1,078 valid samples, landline-only CATI, max sampling error ±2.98pp at 95% confidence) as showing the first statistically significant drop in same-sex marriage support since the survey began in 2018: 69.9% (2025) → 63.6% (2026), still +26.2pp over 2018’s 37.4%.

Reported

All figures below are 報導 from the cited survey/reporting, not archive-verified facts.

  • 同婚支持率 69.9% → 63.6% (−6.3pp); 2024: 69.1%; 2018: 37.4%.
  • 身分證增列第三性別選項 59.3% → 41.9% (−17.4pp); 免摘除性器官變更性別註記 40.6% → 26.8% (−13.8pp); 與跨性別者共用公廁 57.2% → 47.6% (−9.6pp). New 2026 item: 跨性別女性使用女廁 同意 33.5% / 不同意 66.2% (different question framing; not comparable).
  • 單身女性與女同志配偶捐精生育 53.8% → 62.3% (+8.5pp, statistically significant increase).
  • 收養/教養 items dipped but not significantly (78.0→74.6; 78.4→74.2); wording differs across years — the survey itself warns year-over-year comparisons are imperfect.
  • Subgroups (2026, 同婚支持): 30–39歲 82.7% vs 60+ 45.5%; 大學+ 81.1% vs 小學以下 35.6%; 未婚 78.2% vs 寡居 36.2%.
  • Counters to the “變保守” frame: 75.7% reject “同性戀是疾病” (2018: 62.6%); 62.9% reject “同婚破壞家庭”; 75.0% support 跨性別穿著自由; 60.4% say workplaces are gender-friendly (+6.3pp).
  • Legislative context (reported): 行政院 2025-12-11 passed 人工生殖法 amendment draft to include unmarried women and married female same-sex couples; 立法院 joint review 2026-07-16 did not complete 初審; 中央社 2026-10-11 reports committee review still incomplete.
  • Attributed reactions appear in companion reporting (工商時報 2026-07-01), not in this 風傳媒 piece: 翁鈺清 (彩虹平權大平台副執行長), 簡至潔 (伴侶盟秘書長), 彭志鏐 (同志諮詢熱線副秘書長) attribute the drop to international conservative forces / US anti-DEI policy. None has an archive page.

Community Relevance — why this is Tier D, not E

  • The event is a public-opinion survey conducted in Taiwan (Taipei-area Executive Yuan), among Taiwan residents 20+. The community (US-based Taiwanese diaspora) is not a party: no one is targeted on US soil, no families here are surveilled, no diaspora institution is involved.
  • Every named subject (記者 魏甫丞; 翁鈺清, 簡至潔, 彭志鏐) is Taiwan-based and has no page in the archive. Per the card rule, Tier D = cite reporting, no page.
  • If a future item shows a US-soil tie (e.g. a diaspora org citing this poll, or US policy reaction involving our people), re-triage under Tier E at that time — do not pre-mint.

Source Notes and Confidence

  • 風傳媒 (storm.mg) 圖解 piece is secondary reporting of the Executive Yuan survey; single-source figures are marked 報導. The 變保守 causal attributions come from a different outlet (工商時報) and are labeled as such.
  • Nothing here is a biography of any person named; no allegation or court posture involved.

Wire

Revision History

  • 2026-10-26 — created by NEEDS-TIER triage t_329300fd as a live event record (Tier D; not a verified page, no person pages minted).

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